wjax

One in 4-5 women have it, and 80% don't know, if I remember correctly. Its even worse than that in some subgroups such as single women over 45. In that group over half (55%) have HSV2: "Those who were unpartnered had higher HSV-2 prevalence than those who were married/cohabitating. Among unpartnered 45-49 year olds, seroprevalence was 55.3% in women and 25.7% in men." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3020161/

Serious disclaimer: I haven't done any math like this since school days, and I really wouldn't want anyone to risk their sexual health (or that of others) based on my musings at this stage. I'd be really grateful if someone (who actually knows statistical mathematics!) could go through my workings. I just stumbled on this old thread and wanted to chime in. You are indeed correct in your math. The data is easily analyzed using the binomial probability statistical function found in spreadsheets such as Excel. Taking the male-to-female transmission scenario using the Valtrex + condoms dataset for analysis there is a roughly 2.5% chance of female seroconversion in a one year period for a sexually active couple where the male is seropositive. Assuming intercourse 100 times/year the probability of HSV transmission is about 1 in 4000 per sexual encounter using the binomial probability model, pretty much in line with the numbers you posted. Good work!