Chances of passing herpes

[EricaBlue]

So if I've got my stats correct if I take a daily anti viral and have my herpes free partner wear a condom, there's about a 1% chance of transmission. Now, does that mean that if I have sex with him 100 times he'll likely contract it?

[mr_hopp]

That's a misleading way of thinking of it. There's a 1% chance every time you have sex. Look at it this way. There's almost a 2% chance that every time you get in a car to drive somewhere that you'll die in a car accident. You've probably driven more than 100 times at this point, but you haven't died. :)

 

So the way that 1% is found is an aggregation of ALL MEN who have sex with someone else who has herpes. That's the overall average. So for the 1% of passing herpes, it's not going to translate so specifically to each and every 100 times a person has sex.

 

And ultimately the way it works in reality is that a person either gets it 100% (which there is a 1% chance of for men to get herpes) or they don't get it 100% (which there is a 99% chance of happening).

 

Make sense?

 

P.S. And for anyone else wondering where this information is coming from, check out these 2 helpful handouts that go over the stats:

http://bit.ly/h-opp-diagnosis-handout

http://bit.ly/h-opp-disclosure-handout

[EricaBlue]

Yes it does. Especially when you use the car accident analogy. I guess I was getting stuck in the meaning of percent and getting worried about inevitabilities. Thanks for some piece of mind!

[cp42]

great explanation... and great question! I never thought of that