So, I’ve been looking at the research for risk ratio of transmitting HSV2 to try to get numbers of the risk involved with a new healthy partner. I would love your feedback on it. I’ve cited my sources at the bottom.
According to the biggest (as far as I know) study conducted, by Dr Wald, the risk of transmitting HSV during each single sex act without a condom is 0,09%. If you (the carrier of HSV2) do not have HSV1, the risk is 2,34 times less = 0,04%. If you use a condom, the risk is 0,08% of that = 0,003%. According to the study by Corey, taking Valaciclovir regularly will reduce the risk of transmission another 48%, taking us down to 0,0016%.
There are other factors that you can include if you know which specific partner you are assessing, (race, age, partner HSV1 status etc) , but for making a generic calculation, I have left those out. (I do not have HSV1, which is why included that, but that can be taken out if you are uncertain of your own status)
I also have not been able to include other suppressive factors such as using anti-viral condoms (with viva-gel) or taking L-lysine (makes outbreaks and thus active transfer less common, but no study proves it to reduce transmission from shedding), since there are no transmission studies on them.
Would you agree that this is correct, or have I missed something?
Since this is calculated per act, naturally risk will increase with time (approx. x10 per year if having sex twice a week). I’ve chosen to focus on the first act/s with a new partner, since that is when “the talk” should be had. Knowing that it is per act, it is up to both partners to decide how to deal with the risk continuously.
Condom use and transmission of herpes, Dr Wald, University of Washington, Seattle
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/26c9/466e5038d074d3564b8aa5bbe5bdeeea625c.pdf
Antiviral suppresive therapy
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15319087